Security Watch

by Tejal Chandan

Much has been written, analysed and said about the ongoing conflict in Sri Lanka. Many people have lost their lives, their livelihoods and are having sleepless nights. Be it the personnel of the Sri Lankan Security Forces, the LTTE or the common man, all of them have been exposed to extreme stress. Perhaps this is why it is said that conflict in any form or intensity brings insurmountable insecurity although it may be clad with occasional victories for either side. Years have been spent in combat even in the Israel-Palestine conflict but it does not seem to have reached a solution. If anything, it has been generating more fear, hatred and determination to fight back. The conflict in Sri Lanka is no different in this sense.

The air strikes by the LTTE earlier this year followed by the ouster of the Tigers in the East, the ongoing military operations in the North, LTTE's most recent attack in Anuradhapura and the death of LTTE's political head, all form a chain of retaliatory attacks that spell revenge and unending escalation. In the ongoing cycle of one side trying to outdo the other, it was doubtless that the LTTE Chief would vow to carry forward the liberation struggle and the Sri Lankan Defence Secretary would call the death of Tamilselvan a 'message' for more to come. Further, incidents such as the Anuradhapura attack are only adding to the already swelling war expenditure leaving behind a heavy burden for the future, acting as a serious check and constraint on the growth of the economy. The unchecked inflation- reaching 20 percent in spite of the declared 7 percent GDP growth rate has burdened the common man more than anyone else. The latest incident - death of Tamilselvan- has tremendously narrowed the space available for a meaningful political dialogue more because of the hardened determination to fight.

This grim situation nevertheless provides two opportunities that can widen the narrowing space for negotiations - the APRC and the restoration of normalcy in the East. The APRC was established to work out an acceptable proposal for power sharing with the minorities. The majority report of the multi-ethnic expert panel that was advising the APRC was a master piece that showed just how closely the three communities could work. The downfall of this entire process began with the Government distancing itself from the Majority Report, the JVP withdrawing from the APRC and the UNP abandoning it. The APRC has now been reduced to facing the challenge of staying active as a credible forum rather than meeting its original challenge of finding a political solution. The APRC made some progress even amidst opposition from the Sinhala hardliners and the divides that characterize the current Sri Lankan political scenario. According to Prof. Tissa Vitharana, Chairperson, "The APRC has been able to come to a consensus on about 85 percent of the core issues during deliberations, with participation from 13 political parties." The proposals for the powers to be vested with the Central Government have been finalised and work is in progress to finalise the power distribution for the provinces. The chairperson is positive about submitting a final proposal in the next few weeks but the President will have to keep his promise of abiding by the proposals of the APRC and create enough goodwill for the opposition to support the recommendations.

In the Eastern Province, the travails of the people continue even after the much hailed ouster of the LTTE. The Government has been blamed for "Sinhalisation" of the province and forced resettlement of people without ensuring a secure environment. The SLMM in its latest security assessment reported the growing fear in several communities in the East especially the Muslim community owing to the presence of the TMVP cadre. The Muslims, according to reports, have been repeatedly threatened to leave the 'Tamil areas' in the province and are not being allowed to return to their places of origin. The issue has cost the government the support of the Sri Lankan Muslim Congress who withdrew stating the failure of the government to redress the grievances of the Muslims in the Eastern Province. The UN also reports the continuous presence of armed groups in the Ampara District while harassment, intimidation of the civilians and extortions continue. These incidents have been affecting the return of displaced persons and recent clashes between the two factions of the TMVP have prompted former IDPs to flee their homes again. The UNHCR has urged the government to strengthen the return process, build confidence among the returnees and ensure that the returns are voluntary, safe and in line with international standards. Besides the humanitarian issues, a growing challenge in the East is the presence of warlords (Pillayan and what remains of the followers of Karuna) which will eventually pose a greater threat than terrorism.

After the ouster of the Tigers from the East, fighting has continued across the forward defence lines separating the Sri Lankan Security Forces (SLSF) and the rebels in the North. Coordinated operations are being carried out by the Sri Lankan Army and the Air Force in areas surrounding the LTTE held territory. In September 2007, the Army captured Silavathurai and Arippu areas south of Mannar where the LTTE had several transit camps used to unload shipments which were sent to Vanni. The capture allowed the Navy to effectively dominate the South of Mannar Sea. According to Iqbal Athas, greater significance lies in securing land north of Mannar which would prevent Sea Tiger movements across the Gulf of Mannar and restrict logistics supplies. Separately, the Navy destroyed three floating LTTE warehouses in the high seas south east of Sri Lanka. Since September 2006, the Navy has carried out several such attacks destroying LTTE arms shipments and significantly reducing the fighting capability of LTTE. In early November, in what is seen as retaliation to LTTE's Anuradhapura attack, Sri Lankan Air Force pounded a suspected LTTE hideout that killed the LTTE political head Tamilselvan and five other leaders. The rebels on their part have been equally responsible for escalating the war. While making public appeals to the international community to warn the Government on the futility of a military solution, the Tigers continue to carry out attacks against the Sri Lankan Forces and key government installations. On October 22, the LTTE carried out its first coordinated air and ground attack on the Anuradhapura Air Force base completely destroying eight aircraft and damaging 14 other aircraft costing the Government USD 30 Million.

Throughout the last two years, military victories and the subsequent crackdown on LTTE operatives in several countries have severely reduced the operational capabilities of the group. Its isolation and desperation could not have been expressed more clearly than in the 2007 Hero's Day Speech by the LTTE leader, indicating that the Sri Lankan Government's military and diplomatic maneuvers have been achieving their goals. The willing or unwilling propaganda of despair by the LTTE is giving no reason for the Government to backtrack on its successes.

Public Opinion

National surveys provide useful barometers to gauge public opinion in a country and the results of such surveys are pointers for future action. Two public surveys in the case of Sri Lanka merit a mention here, one by the Marga Institute in collaboration with the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka1 (NPC) and the other by the Centre for Policy Alternatives2 (CPA) . The Marga-NPC study was a one-time deliberative poll carried out in Ampara in the Eastern Province and 17 other districts from the rest of country in May-June 2007. The CPA survey called the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) is a periodic study conducted using a structured questionnaire and a randomly selected sample of 1300 people from 17 districts in the country. It is essential to note that both these surveys could not cover the North and East. The Marga Study represents the opinions of the Sinhalese and the Muslims and the CPA study represents the opinions of the Sinhalese, Muslims and Up-Country Tamils.

The NPC- Marga Study

This study covered issues regarding the fundamentals and preconditions for peace, the current military strategy, constitutional reforms and the future of the North and the East. According to the survey, 72 percent of the respondents agreed that regardless of the military action to end the war there has to be a political solution to the present conflict. 87 percent agreed that such a solution should provide a political system for equitable sharing of power between Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim communities while maintaining the unity and integrity of the country.

The responses to the question of whether the Government should continue the current strategy of weakening the LTTE highlight the sharp opinion shifts in the respondents. 68.4 percent stated that the government should continue its strategy of weakening the LTTE and 77.2 percent said that the government must act on the basis that the LTTE will not enter the democratic process. But when asked if peace can be achieved through an offer of a political solution that should be negotiated with all parties including the LTTE, a majority of 57.7 percent agreed. Interestingly 72.4 percent agree that lasting peace is possible through a political solution that all communities accept and that includes the LTTE in a negotiated settlement with a multiparty democratic system. Clearly, the responses indicate what is more desirable.
On the question of constitutional reforms, a maximum number of persons, i.e. 87.5 percent accepted a system of the Province as the unit of devolution, where the emphasis is on fundamental rights and equality of all citizens regardless of race and religion. On the North and East, 63.9 percent believed that in order to strengthen efforts for peace, people of the North and East should be able to exercise their rights and elect their representatives to provincial councils freely and fairly while 85 percent were of the opinion that special arrangements should be made to hold elections to the provincial councils of the North and East without further postponement.

The CPA Peace Confidence Index

The CPA study gives a clearer picture of community wise opinions with the responses graphed as those of the Sinhalese, the Up Country Tamils and the Muslims. On a question relating to the national issue of most importance, the Sinhalese (29.4 percent and 27.3 percent) and Up Country Tamils (27.2 percent and 25.1 percent) gave high priority to economy followed by the peace process and the Muslims gave a high priority to the peace process followed by the economy (33.1 percent and 30.5 percent). Again, a majority from all three communities, Sinhalese (52.9 percent), Up Country Tamils (95.4 percent) and Muslims (93.1 percent) believe that the best solution to the conflict is through peace talks. Support on this opinion among the Sinhalese increased by 7 percent from 46.3 percent recorded in CPA's February Poll. 27.9 percent of the Sinhalese also believe that the solution lies in the government defeating the LTTE.

Peace processes thrive on the level of commitment and capability of the parties involved. 62.3 percent of the Sinhalese agree that the government is committed to finding peace through talks. When compared to the February polls there has been an 11 percent decrease in this opinion among the Sinhalese. On the other hand, 44.1 percent of Muslims and 52.4 percent of Up- Country Tamils do not agree that the Government is committed to finding a solution through peace talks. 75.5 percent of the Sinhalese and 50.8 percent of the Muslims do not agree that the LTTE is committed to peace through talks, while 43.3 percent of the Up Country Tamils agree. On the question of foreign involvement which has been a highly debated issue 45.1 percent Sinhalese, 81.8 percent Up Country Tamils and 71.7 percent Muslims believe that an international-third party facilitator will have a positive impact on the peace process.

On the question of the cost of living, a majority of Sinhalese -57.4 percent said that they are willing to bear the rising cost of living for the sake of the Government's effort in fighting LTTE. Compared to the February polls there has been an 11 percent decrease in the number of Sinhalese having the same sentiment. The question is, how long will the nation continue to bear the rising costs?

The two surveys, although lacking a representative Tamil population, illustrate that a majority of the public in Sri Lanka desire an early peace with restoration of democratic processes in the North and the East and equality for all communities. As it appears now a favorable condition for peace is yet to be created. While the protagonists continue to work on a military solution, the country has been left polarized. The key problem in Sri Lanka, according to Jayadeva Uyangoda, lies in the conduct of the ethnic war with new determination but without a parallel political reform programme.3 The fact remains that without addressing the political root causes of the conflict, any other process cannot yield a meaningful and long-lasting solution. A change in the situation will depend on the swift de-escalation of the conflict and restoration of democratic processes, for the moment, at least in the Eastern province. There is an urgent need to speed up the process of resettling the IDPs in their original places and sincerely carrying out the necessary developmental and reconstruction activities such as post-tsunami rehabilitation, rebuilding schools, primary health care centres, hospitals and restoring water and power supplies. This would enable the revival of a process that can remove fear and gradually reverse the loss of trust and understanding between the Sinhala, the Muslim and the Tamil communities.

The SL government will have to prove to the majority of Tamils that their legitimate grievances will be addressed and that they can trust the Sinhala leadership. In a recent interview with the Sri Lanka Guardian, Mr. R. Swaminathan, Former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India has said that even if a comprehensive agreement with the Tamils cannot be reached the Government should be prepared to take initial steps unilaterally and hope that the Tamils will respond favorably.4 Sri Lanka cannot afford to continue on the war path. An indigenous solution arrived at through consensus will be more effective and durable than an imposed solution through military force.

Endnotes

1. The Marga Institute is a civil society initiative started in 1972 in Colombo. It focuses on the study and critical evaluation of past and ongoing developmental activities in Sri Lanka. The National Peace Council of Sri Lanka (NPC) was established in 1995. It focuses on strengthening public support for a negotiated political solution to the conflict and supports activities aimed at mobilizing the people towards peace and conflict transformation.

2. The Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) was formed in 1996 to strengthen institution- and capacity-building for good governance and conflict transformation in Sri Lanka.

3. Jayadeva Uyangoda, ' Beyond Redemption', Frontline, December 7, 2007, p 35-36

4. Interview with R. Swaminathan, Former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, Sri Lankan Guardian, http://lankaguardian.blogspot.com