The conflict in Sri Lanka
by Tejal Chandan
The civil war in Sri Lanka has killed an estimated 67000-68000 people since 1983 and displaced thousands of people. Political assassinations, abductions, disappearances, human rights violations, internal displacement of people, air strikes, suicide bombings and land, air and sea battles have marked the completion of five years of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) signed between the Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE. The initial optimism after the Ceasefire soon dwindled when several rounds of negotiations failed to reach a political solution. Amidst political competition, economic backwardness and ceasefire violations on both sides, the peace process ground to a halt in mid 2003. Anticipations for peace grew with the talks restarting in February 2006. The Centre for Security Analysis, Chennai held a seminar on Peace Process in Sri Lanka: Challenges and Opportunities in Colombo around the same time to explore the potential for peace in Sri Lanka. However, talks in February and October 2006 failed to restart any discussion on a political solution.
Recent developments in the Sri Lankan political scene have led to the Government securing a long-elusive parliamentary majority after 25 opposition party MPs defected to its ranks. This cross-over has deepened a rift with the main opposition United National Party (UNP) and jeopardized a pact between the Government and the UNP aimed at finding a consensus approach to end a two and a half decade old civil war. Securing this majority meant that the Rajapaksa government will not be hostage to volatile hardline Marxist and Buddhist monk allies who have repeatedly conditioned support for the Government and are against a political deal with the Tigers.
Soon after a cabinet reshuffle which led to allotting ministerial posts to 10 of the defected MPs, President Rajapakse dismissed three key ministers who had apparently criticized the appointment of the defected ministers into the Cabinet. Since then allegations regarding human rights violations and 'mud-slinging' have characterized communications between the dismissed ministers and the Government. In the meantime, the JHU (National Heritage Party), a hardline Buddhist monk's party holding nine seats in the parliament also joined the Government.
The conflict on the other hand has intensified with the Government pursuing the possibility of a military solution. A string of military successes over the past few months have emboldened the chasing out of the Tigers from its remaining strongholds in the East. With thousands fleeing for their lives amid heavy artillery fire in northern and eastern Sri Lanka this weekend; analysts say that the Government, LTTE and Norway are clinging to a dead truce. The Oslo backed peace process suffered another blow with the Tigers warning to resume their struggle for independence and statehood. Blaming the international community of bias and inaction, the Tigers stated that the Ceasefire Agreement has been left meaningless and contributed to war-like conditions.
The international community is now getting restless over the inordinate delay on the part of the Government in coming forward with a political package for devolution and power-sharing. The All-Party Representative Conference (APRC) initiated by the President for a southern consensus on recommendations for constitutional reform and power sharing has suffered a blow even as it serves as an important opportunity to achieve peace. While pledging another 4.5 billion US Dollars for development, donors at the Development Forum in Galle last month have warned of foreign aid cuts unless the country showed signs of moving towards a peaceful end to the bloodshed. While some analysts suggest that the government will pay little attention to constitutional reforms with its military euphoria, others say that the Government is merely underestimating the rebels. The US Ambassador to Sri Lanka has said that his country 'respectfully disagreed' with those in the Sri Lankan Government who felt that a military solution was possible to end the Tamil separatist campaign. He added that a purely military strategy will have costs to pay and a solution is possible only through a parallel political strategy.
Government officials and diplomats in Colombo have agreed that neither the Government nor the LTTE will formally withdraw from the CFA as both would not want to antagonize the international community. While the Sri Lankan government is pursuing a military strategy, the LTTE is also preparing for a war. This is evident from the recent arms hauls and captures in Tamil Nadu. In the current situation with widespread violence, peace for the island has moved farther away.
