Security Watch

by Tejal Chandan

The All Party Representative Committee (APRC) considered to be a potentially promising initiative for peace in Sri Lanka, has found an obstacle in the lack of consensus over the nature of the Sri Lankan State. The APRC was convened by the Sri Lankan President in July 2006. It was mandated with the task to find a political solution to the ethnic conflict through proposals for constitutional reforms with an aim to engage various political parties and arrive at a consensus through deliberations. After 42 meetings in 14 months, the decision to adjourn APRC meetings and no further progress there on has led to the prediction of its demise and the notion that the APRC has failed to evolve anything tangible. On the contrary, the APRC has made considerable progress and arrived at a consensus on various issues. (See Text Box). The issues that remain points of disagreement are the nature of the state i.e. unitary or federal and the re-merger or de-merger of the North and East provinces.

The fundamental question of whether Sri Lanka should continue to be governed from the centre or more power should be devolved to the provinces has remained a point of disagreement for decades denying a lasting negotiated solution. While a unitary government is synonymous to continued Sinhala domination for the Tamils, for the Sinhalese, it is seen as a guarantee for the unity of the country and their majority rule. The Chairperson of the APRC, Prof. Tissa Vitharana tried to bridge this chasm by proposing to leave out both the terms 'unitary' and 'federal' from the Sri Lankan Constitution and instead describing the State as "one, free, sovereign and independent State" which advances a Sri Lankan identity recognizing the "multi-lingual, multi-religious and multi cultural character of the Sri Lankan society". The Vitharana proposals adopted a large part of the Majority Report of the Experts1 Committee which promoted the need for maximum devolution and power-sharing at the centre.

The current roadblock facing the APRC process reminds one of the fate of several past attempts at constitutional reforms, all of which became victims of chauvinistic politics and the lack of consensus among the Sri Lankan leadership. One of the first attempts was made with the Bandaranaike-Chelvanayagam Pact and later the Senanayake-Chelvanayagam Pact. The abrogation of these pacts sowed the seeds of betrayal and mistrust and led even the Tamil moderates to demand for a free nation. The situation was only aggravated with the 1983 pogrom. J. R. Jayawardene's efforts, first in introducing proportional representation and incorporating Tamil language rights in the Constitution in 1978 and later in devolving powers to provinces and according an official status to the Tamil language under the India- Sri Lanka Peace Accord in 1987, faced extensive protest from the south and fuelled a Sinhala insurgency. In 1995, Chandrika Kumaratunga along with her constitutional architects, G.L.Peiris and Neelan Thiruchelvam presented a devolution package based on a federal constitution. The proposal was an unprecedented move from the SLFP (Sri Lanka Freedom Party) but this process was also short lived. The LTTE on its part carried out political assassinations, virtually eliminating the moderate Tamil leaders, thus, weakening the democratic voices within the Tamils. The Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) proposal was the only instance when LTTE presented a concrete proposal. The ISGA outlined the LTTE position regarding a framework for political solution which however did not refer to LTTE's plans to function within a united country. These proposals were also set aside on the grounds of being outside Sri Lanka's Constitution and laws.

In this dismal background, the positive outcome of the current APRC process amidst tremendous political activity has shown the possibility to evolve a consensus on key issues and propose safeguards against secession. Besides, the Majority Report is considered as the most progressive set of proposals since the Peiris-Thiruchelvam package. However, in seeking a final solution the political scene in Sri Lanka cannot be ignored. The APRC received a boost when UNP (United National Party) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the SLFP effectively bringing two of the largest political parties together in the process. However, the MoU fell apart with a mass cross-over of UNP members into the Government. The UNP stopped attending APRC meetings and set a deadline of August 31, 2007 for a final proposal. Later citing APRC's inability to submit a final proposal within the deadline, the UNP quit the process. Dissent within the SLFP also led to the formation of a break away faction SLFP (M) headed by Mangala Samaraweera, former Foreign Minister which has joined hands with the UNP, reportedly, to topple the Government.

The Government headed by Rajapaksa is supported by the pro-war JVP (Janatha Vimukti Perumuna) and JHU (Jathika Hela Urumaya) and its majority in parliament is based on ethnic minority parties such as the CWC (Ceylon worker's Congress) and SLMC (Sri Lanka Muslim Congress). The pro-war parties have a passionate commitment to the unitary state and their support therefore will come at a price of no accommodation with the forces of Tamil nationalism. The rising cost of living and coming to light of Government extravagances has frustrated several hardcore JVP activists and its core base of trade unions, prompting JVP to carry out protests against the government. The UNP is also said to be engaged in wooing the JVP. The recent announcement by UNP that it will deviate from federalism in resolving the national conflict is seen as a step to muster JVP's support in toppling the government. The military operations on the other hand have increased the sense of insecurity among the ethnic minority constituencies thereby reducing chances of steady support from the minority parties. The government has also to worry about the return of Chandrika Kumartaunga and is concerned that she may lure loyalists and disgruntled elements to break away from SLFP.

With regard to the military operations, Defense Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa declared that a political solution will be possible only after a comprehensive military defeat of the LTTE and victories in the East need to be complemented with victories in the North. There has been a slow but sure military thrust by the Sri Lankan security forces. The Navy intercepted and destroyed three cargo vessels of the LTTE. The Army gained full control of the entire area south of Mannar including Sea Tiger bases in Silvathurai, Arippu and several other areas. The Army also captured LTTE's FDL near Yodha Wewa (Giant Tank) north of Mannar. The pressure may be mounting for the LTTE but the fact that it has not engaged in any major military attacks in the recent months indicates to the fact that they have also not expended vast quantities of ammunition. LTTE's Political Head S. P. Thamilchelvan in an interview to TamilNet stated that the outfit's patience was intentional and it was restricting itself to a defensive war. Incidentally, in the back ground the President's impending visit to New York to address the UN General Assembly Gothabaya Rajapaksa invited the LTTE to the negotiating table. Nevertheless the Government's commitment to a political solution has been questioned. Past experiences of military solutions in Sri Lanka have indicated that the impetus for political reform ends once the Government defeats its opponent.

Deterioration of the human rights situation, executions and rising abductions has also given rise to international pressure. On the eve of Mahinda Rajapaksa's address to the UN General Assembly Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur on Summary and Arbitary Killings stated that the situation in Sri Lanka had erupted into a crisis and extra judicial killings need to be stopped. Earlier in August this year, Sir John Holmes, UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, called the record of the safety of humanitarian workers in Sri Lanka as one of the worst in the world. Currently the UN Special Envoy Manfred Nowak is in Sri Lanka and his visit will be followed by a fact- finding mission by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour.

Given the rising costs of living and the war against LTTE the need for a political solution is felt by all sides in Sri Lanka. Two recent opinion polls, one by the Marga Institute in collaboration with the National Peace Council and another by the Centre for Policy Alternatives highlight the growing acceptance of a political solution over the military option. They also indicate the space available for negotiations with the LTTE. The Marga survey was a deliberative poll conducted between May- June 2007 in Ampara in the Eastern Province and 17 other districts from all other provinces excluding the North. The survey largely reflects the positions of the majority and the Muslim community. According to the survey, an assessment of the efficacy of a military solution led 72 percent of the respondents to conclude that a political solution is the best guarantee for a lasting peace. The study further notes that this readiness of 72 percent to "envisage a future where LTTE is part and parcel of a restructured Sri Lankan polity reveals the space available for arriving at a political settlement that has public backing." On the question of devolution of powers, 44.7 percent support the Indian model while only 22.1 percent accept a fully federal system. The CPA opinion poll conducted as part of its study of Peace Confidence Index in June 2007 saw a majority 95.4 percent of Up-Country Tamils, 93.1 percent of Muslims and 52.9 percent of Sinhalas supporting a solution through peace talks. If at this moment in time, a political solution acceptable to ethnic minorities is accepted by the Government, the impetus for peace will lie on the LTTE. Such a proposal can lead to immense pressure on the LTTE from the Tamils and the International community.

Foot Note

1. The Experts Committee was a 17-member multi-ethnic panel of experts formed to provide advice and submit recommendations regarding power sharing and constitutional reform to the APRC. The expert committee produced four different reports. The Majority Report was submitted by 11 members representing the three major ethnic groups. Four other members submitted another report and two others submitted two separate reports.

Text of the APRC Chairperson's Report