Security Watch

by Tejal Chandan

The LTTE air strike on Sri Lanka's principal Air Force (SLAF) base in Katunayake on March 26, 2007 worsened the prevailing volatile security environment in the strife torn country and added a new dimension to the conflict whereby the Tigers now possess the capability to select a target anywhere in the country and access it by air. In the aftermath of the event, the Sri Lankan government was quick to report no damage to its Israel built Kfirs and Ukranian MIG-27s and stage a series of furious attacks on LTTE targets. From the propaganda perspective, the LTTE attack received extraordinary media attention worldwide. Several websites sensationalised the event as a major Tiger triumph and the Tiger leadership declared the raid as a mere demonstration of what was to come. Analysts in Sri Lanka and abroad perceived in the event an onset of a horrendous new phase of the Sri Lankan conflict.

While some analysts have claimed that the Sri Lankan security forces were unaware of LTTE's attempts since late the 1990s to develop air-strike capability, others have stated that the Government has been aware all along of the Tigers' attempts. Apart from installing anti-aircraft guns at several strategic spots in late 1990s, intelligence reports submitted to India in 2001 seeking the installation of the present radar system refer specifically to LTTE's possession of several light aircraft. The fact that an aircraft or two could take off from Wanni, travel 400 kilometres, bomb the SLAF and return unchallenged speaks poorly of the defence preparedness of Colombo. The Sri Lankan Government has ordered an investigation in this context. Moreover, the event has exposed the holes in the Sri Lankan security system at a time when the security forces claimed to have put the LTTE war machine out of action.

With regard to the aircraft used in the raid, the photographs released show that the aircraft was a Czech manufactured Zlin-143, single engine trainer with a maximum flying speed of 267 kph, a wing span of 6.95m and a length of 8.8m, requiring a runway of at least 500m for a normal takeoff and landing. According to a Situation Report in the Sri Lankan 'Sunday Times', the Zlin-143 aircraft is said to have a range of 630 nautical miles and is capable of carrying an ordnance load of 240 kilograms. The LTTE is reported to be in possession of a few other light aircrafts including PC7 and PC9 from the Pilatus Company. With the present range, Indian cities like Chennai, Bangalore and Thiruvanantapuram, the nuclear reactors at Kalpakkam and Kudankulam (under construction) fall into the LTTE strike range. The Tigers are said to have an air strip at Iranamadu and at Pudukudurippu (about 26 kilometres North of Mullaitivu) which the SLAF claimed to have bombed on more than one occasion in 2005-2006. Despite this the fact remains that the Tigers now have air, land and sea forces with intelligence, artillery and commando wings being significantly the only militant group after the Nicaraguan 'Contras' to acquire air power.

In an interview to the BBC, Colonel Karuna, who broke away from the LTTE in 2004, stated that the Tiger leader Prabhakaran was never sincere about the peace talks and signed the Ceasefire Agreement merely to buy time and rearm for more war. The LTTE used lax security of the ceasefire period for rejuvenating its fighting capacity. As pointed out by a JVP MP in 'The Hindu' dated April 5, 2007, the LTTE had imported parts for helicopters and light aeroplanes in the guise of emergency relief in 2005 and majority of the consignments were allowed to pass through the country's main ports of entry to the Tamil areas without the usual customs checks.

However, given the general trend of losses and setbacks suffered by the LTTE since mid 2006, the attack has been called an act in desperation. The Sri Lankan forces, having evicted the LTTE from most of its bases in the East, are now nearing the final stages of their consolidation operations. The Sri Lankan Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka has stated that the LTTE rank and file is only between 3500 and 4000 cadres in the North and East. In the context of these failures and losses it has been speculated that the deteriorating morale within the ranks of the LTTE is likely to have provided one of the main impulses for the airbase attack.

The Sri Lankan President warned that the LTTE's air strike capability was a threat to the entire South Asian region. The Indian Government has voiced serious concerns over the escalation of violence and conveyed its readiness to help Sri Lanka find a solution. While the Indian Air Force has set up eight radars as a precautionary measure to monitor the skies and the Indian Navy has began round the clock patrolling, the Chief of the Southern Air Command, Air Marshal Y.R. Rane has said that the air combat capability of the LTTE poses "little or no" threat to India. The Tigers are unlikely to strike India and incur its wrath. Indian Air Chief Marshal Fali Major has called the air strike more of an irritant than a threat.

Perturbed by the security related developments in the country, the Sri Lankan President is seriously considering holding a referendum to decide whether the government should continue to abide by the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), according to the state-run Sunday Observer Newspaper. The LTTE in the meantime has expressed its readiness to resume peace talks under a pre-condition that the CFA should be fully implemented and future talks should be based on it. While the Government is ready to resume talks and will submit its proposals on devolution to the All Party Representative Committee on May 1, Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama asserted that the LTTE would continue to be considered a terrorist outfit and dealt with accordingly.

Whether the air strike was successful or not, it definitely has taken the toll on the Sri Lankan Economy, especially the tourism industry. Following the air strike Asia's third biggest airline, Cathay Pacific suspended daily flights in and out of Sri Lanka and hoteliers have voiced concern over the inability to achieve peak season targets. Sri Lanka Tourist Board Chairman Renton De Alwis has said that "Tourism is always a casualty, the first casualty in a situation like this".

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